usdmxn forecast: USD MXN Rate, Signals, Charts & Technical Analysis

Mexico’s economic activity increased by 1.6 percent year-on-year in June of 2022, decelerating from an upwardly revised 2.2 percent rise in May and missing market expectations of a 2 percent advance. To the best of our knowledge, all content is accurate as of the date posted, though offers contained herein may no longer be available. The opinions expressed are the author’s alone and have not been provided, approved, or otherwise endorsed by our partners. Furthermore, if the BdeM deploys a more hawkish stance than the Fed next year, this will further contribute to U.S dollar weakness against the Mexican peso. Barclays, a British-based bank, is optimistic, predicting a 2023 close of M$19 against the U.S. dollar.

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The Mexican peso is Mexico’s official currency, issued by the country’s central bank, the Banco de Mexico . The peso has historically been one of the most stable currencies in Latin America thanks to Mexico’s economic growth and trading relationship with the US. The MXN is accepted for payment in border towns in the US, as well as Guatemala and Belize. What has supported the value of the peso, and will it be able to continue holding ground?

There will be a time down the road when they will agree to a huge buying opportunity. However, a lot of oscillations still can happen in the meantime. For over 7 years in our DC office, Toral has managed revenue operations and data analysis to help Monex make informed and strategic business decisions. Gold price stretched higher toward $1,820 during the European trading hours on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield turned south after having advanced above 4% earlier in the day, helping XAU/USD cling to its daily recovery gains.

Dollar To Mexican Peso Forecast For 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 And 2027

In contrast, multiple forecasts predict an imminent U.S. recession of various magnitudes. David Soloman, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, predicts a “reasonable” chance of a U.S. recession in 2023. In addition, analysts from the Federal National Mortgage Association anticipate long-term secrets to short-term trading by larry williams a U.S.-based recession will start in Q1 of 2023. To get the best possible experience please use the latest version of Chrome, Firefox, Safari, or Microsoft Edge to view this website. Learn more about our full range of powerful features including the best charts on the web.

The Mexican Peso is expected to trade at 18.25 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 19.20 in 12 months time. The market trend factors in multiple indicators, including Simple Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Pivot Point, Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index, and Stochastic. For over 20 years, Monex has helped guide thousands of organizations, across virtually all industry sectors, through volatile market conditions. This accolade reaffirms our efforts to deliver the best possible tailored currency and payment solutions to mitigate FX risk. It would have been easy to change our forecasts in the face of this but we stuck with our conviction and held our long-term forecasts.

USD/MXN Technical levels

This was a consequence of increased U.S. dollar capital inflows seeking safety amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and economic adversity. Last week, the market experienced highs and https://forexbitcoin.info/ lows due to factors such as inflation, rate hikes, and tax cuts. Whether it was Indices, Forex, or Stocks, here’s a look at the various trends that influenced the markets last week.

How you trade the US dollar against the Mexican peso is a personal decision you should make depending on your risk tolerance and investing strategy. The pair pulled back to 19.84 in mid-August as markets began anticipating the US Federal Reserve turning dovish. Banxico raised interest rates to a record high of 8.5% with the potential for further increases.

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Also, sentiment deterioration would play an important piece of the puzzle in the future of the USD/MXN pair. The US dollar rebounded to 20.48 in early May, as the US increased the pace of interest rate hikes it started in March, but dropped to 19.56 a month later. The USD/MXN rate moved back up to 20.86 in mid-July, as the Banxico paused its own interest rate hikes.

Following the 1970s oil crisis, Mexico defaulted on its external debt and saw significant capital outflows, inflation and currency devaluation. The US dollar skyrocketed from 12.50 against the peso to more than 3,000, prompting the government to introduce the nuevo peso, MXN, in January 1993. Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro & Lisa Abramowicz live from New York, bringing insight on global markets and the top business stories of the day. It’s worth paying close attention to the 18 pesos level because it is not only a support level, but it is also a major support level on the monthly chart. The USD/MXN bounced a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility in this market. The US dollar has fallen again during the trading session on Tuesday against the Mexican peso, as we are now breaking through the 18 pesos level.

However, the U.S. dollar’s weakness against the Mexican peso reflects the peso’s relative strength compared to many U.S. dollar-based pairs. The results of forecasts of the Euro / Dollar currency pair are presented below in the form of graphs, tables and text information. Historically, the Mexican Peso reached an all time high of 25.78 in April of 2020. Mexican Peso – data, forecasts, historical chart – was last updated on March of 2023. Most Currency traders should trade Currency currencies including USDMXN during the Europe and USA Market Session Overlaps. The chart above shows the monthly view of the Peso and bearish sequence since the peak.

Look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. “Where there could be some joy for those a little more bearish on the dollar is amongst high-yielding Latam FX – especially the Mexican peso. Some have made the good point that the slower pace of Fed hikes could reduce volatility in the interest rate markets,” according to analysis by Dutch bank ING.

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We do not offer financial advice, advisory or brokerage services, nor do we recommend or advise individuals or to buy or sell particular stocks or securities. Performance information may have changed since the time of publication. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Banxico forecasts economic growth of 1.6% for Mexico in 2023, lower than the 1.8% estimated, while for 2024, the projection is reduced to 1.8% from 2.1%.

Opinions, market data, or any other content is subject to change at any time without notice.The data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. Technically, you can trade currency pairs, including USD/MXN, around-the-clock. However, there are certain time slots when forex trading is most busy. This usually occurs whenever significant macroeconomic data is released or new central bank policies are unveiled. All forecast data on the site are provided for informational purposes of using neural forecasting tools in the financial market and are not a call to action and, moreover, are not trading signals. When using the forecast data, the investor assumes all financial risks.

This should favor further downside for the Peso into the $15.93-$14.66 area. The reaction from this area, in our view, should produce the expected wave V in the $USDX. We believe the combination of the $USDX and the $USDMXN will create a WXY structure in the Peso.

• For over 7 years in our DC office, Toral has managed revenue operations and data analysis to help Monex make informed and strategic business decisions.
• In that case, a compression of the spread between Banxico and the Fed policy rates could lead to MXN depreciation, which could be offset by flows to fixed-income instruments in Mexico and the LatAm region.
• Inflation forecasts and subsequent central bank monetary policy could precipitate long-term weakness for the future U.S. dollar.
• The US dollar has fallen again during the trading session on Tuesday against the Mexican peso, as we are now breaking through the 18 pesos level.
• Barclays, a British-based bank, is optimistic, predicting a 2023 close of M$19 against the U.S. dollar.

The Mexican peso had its best yearly performance since 2017 and was one of the top-performing emerging market currencies in 2022. This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. Inflation forecasts and subsequent central bank monetary policy could precipitate long-term weakness for the future U.S. dollar. The greenback made a sudden 1.32% decline against the Mexican peso after a 0.5% decrease in the expected annual rate of U.S. inflation was reported.

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Whether you prefer a traditional over-the-counter service or the convenience of an online challenger bank, there are many offline and online options. While this is good for the consumer, prior preparation will save you money. Make use of an online currency conversion calculator to make quick comparisons between vendors to secure the best rate without paying huge fees. Despite both adopting a hawkish monetary policy stance, the 10% rate set by the Banco de México is an eye watering 6% higher than the 4% base rate set by the Fed.

With recessions forecast in the U.S., Canada and Europe either by or during the new year, Mexican peso strength will depend on if the U.S. recession occurs and how deeply it is felt in comparison to Mexico’s economic fortunes. Further price fluctuations will depend on the extent economic data releases for the U.S. and Mexico, scheduled or unscheduled, deviate from expectations. Early signs of falling inflation fueled speculation of a less hawkish Fed. This precipitated a “risk on” environment with U.S. dollar investors swapping safety for riskier asset classes.

June CPI data pointed to an inflation rate of 8% in Mexico, the highest since 2001. Sentiment deteriorated for households’ current financial situation (53.8 vs 55.9 in June), and the assessment for current state of the Mexican economy (44.6 vs 46.6). The U.S. dollar may have surged in value as a safe haven against its major rival currencies amid the economic and geopolitical headwinds that have dogged 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war, soaring global inflation and post-pandemic domestic labor shortages have collectively contributed to increasing U.S. dollar strength.

In this article we look at the key drivers for the USD/MXN foreign exchange rate and the latest long-term forecasts from analysts. As things stand right now, I am much more interested in fading signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies, and that will likely than not continue to be the best way to trade this market. All things being equal, I just don’t see how this changes anytime soon, so with this it is a situation where you are looking for value in the Mexican peso itself. While I do not like the idea of shorting the US dollar overall, this is a strong example of a market that is flying in the face of a lot of other factors. The central bank of Mexico will continue to remain very tight with its monetary policy, and that may be what the biggest driver is.

This means that if you invested $100 now, your current investment may be worth $186.48 on 2024 March 09, Saturday.